The 2026 Senedd Election has delivered a historic and dramatic result in the Casnewydd Islwyn constituency. Reform UK emerged as the single largest party by vote share in this newly drawn seat, with Welsh Reform leader Dan Thomas claiming a Senedd seat for the very first time. Plaid Cymru also performed strongly, matching Reform UK’s tally of two elected members. Labour, the Conservatives, and other parties also secured representation, making this one of the most diverse and competitive results anywhere in Wales.
The Casnewydd Islwyn constituency brings together communities from across the Newport area. It covers the former Westminster seats of Newport West and Newport East, and includes towns and areas such as Newport city centre, Blackwood, Caerleon, Abercarn, and Risca. Six members were elected to represent this constituency in the Senedd under the D’Hondt proportional representation system.
The Full Vote Totals in Casnewydd Islwyn
Voters across Casnewydd Islwyn cast their ballots across a wide range of parties and independent candidates. Reform UK secured the highest number of votes in the constituency, followed closely by Plaid Cymru in second place. Labour came in third, with the Conservatives in fourth. The Greens achieved a notable share of the vote, while the Liberal Democrats trailed further behind.
Here is the complete breakdown of votes cast:
- Reform UK – 25,571 votes
- Plaid Cymru – 23,069 votes
- Labour – 10,622 votes
- Conservatives – 8,847 votes
- Green Party – 5,898 votes
- Liberal Democrats – 2,683 votes
- Other candidates – 1,008 votes
Reform UK’s lead of over 2,500 votes ahead of Plaid Cymru underlines just how dramatically the political landscape in this part of Wales has shifted. In previous elections, Labour would have expected to dominate in areas like Newport and the surrounding valleys communities. The results in 2026 tell a very different story.
Turnout in Casnewydd Islwyn
The overall voter turnout in Casnewydd Islwyn stood at 47.8%, reflecting a moderate level of engagement with the Senedd Election across the constituency. With the new multi-member proportional system in place for the first time, many voters were navigating a new type of ballot, choosing between party lists rather than individual candidates in the traditional first-past-the-post sense.
The Six Elected Senedd Members for Casnewydd Islwyn
Under the D’Hondt method of proportional representation, six Members of the Senedd (MS) were elected to represent Casnewydd Islwyn. Seats were allocated to parties based on their share of the vote, with candidates elected in the order they appeared on each party’s list.
The six elected Senedd Members are:
- Dan Thomas – Reform UK
- Peredur Owen Griffiths – Plaid Cymru
- Art Wright – Reform UK
- Lyn Ackerman – Plaid Cymru
- Jayne Bryant – Labour
- Natasha Asghar – Conservatives
This result means Reform UK and Plaid Cymru each won two of the six available seats. Labour and the Conservatives each secured one seat. Notably, the Green Party and Liberal Democrats did not win any seats despite receiving a combined vote total of over 8,500 votes.
Dan Thomas: Reform UK’s Welsh Leader Makes History
The most talked-about result from Casnewydd Islwyn is the election of Dan Thomas, Reform UK’s Welsh leader, to the Senedd for the very first time. Thomas topped his party’s list and his election marks a significant moment for the party in Wales. Reform UK has rapidly grown its support across Welsh constituencies, and the party’s performance in Casnewydd Islwyn – winning more votes than any other party – signals a major shift in voter sentiment in this traditionally Labour-leaning part of the country.
Thomas’s election alongside colleague Art Wright gives Reform UK a two-member platform from this single constituency alone. This is a clear statement from voters that they want a new kind of representation at Cardiff Bay.
Plaid Cymru Holds Strong
Despite finishing second in the overall vote count, Plaid Cymru performed impressively in Casnewydd Islwyn, securing over 23,000 votes and electing two members. Peredur Owen Griffiths and Lyn Ackerman will both take their seats in the Senedd representing this constituency.
Plaid Cymru’s strong showing reflects the party’s growing appeal across a wider range of Welsh communities, including those in the south-east of the country that have not always been strongholds for the party. Griffiths topped the Plaid list, reflecting his profile as an established political figure in the area.
Labour and Conservatives Each Secure One Seat
Jayne Bryant secured Labour’s single seat in Casnewydd Islwyn, maintaining a Labour presence in a constituency where the party once dominated. Bryant headed Labour’s candidate list and her election ensures that the area’s working communities still have a Labour voice in the Senedd.
For the Conservatives, Natasha Asghar claimed the sixth and final seat. With 8,847 votes, the Conservatives earned enough support under the D’Hondt calculation to secure one place. Asghar, who topped the Conservative list, brings experience and visibility to the role.
The Full List of Candidates Who Stood in Casnewydd Islwyn
A total of several parties and independent candidates put themselves forward for election in Casnewydd Islwyn. Here is the complete list of candidates by party:
Conservatives Natasha Asghar, Toby Jones, Jake Enea, Georgina Webb, Adam Morris, Rebecca Nyasha Mamhende
Green Party Lauren James, Phil Davies, Zaynab Greengrass, Kerry Vosper, David Mayer, Andrew Were
Heritage Party Mike Ford
Independent Taran Clayton
Labour Jayne Bryant, Rhianon Passmore, Chris Carter, Rhian Howells, Julie Sangani, Stephen Marshall, David Martin Chinnick
Liberal Democrats Mike Hamilton, John Miller, Nurul Islam, Harun Rashid, Mary Lloyd, Jeff Evans
Open Party Justna Muhith
Plaid Cymru Peredur Owen Griffiths, Lyn Ackerman, Rhys Mills, Josh Rawcliffe, Jonathan Clark, Sarah Henton
Reform UK Daniel Thomas, Arthur Wright, Marie-Claire Lea, Nicholas Jones, Rebecca Senior, Tomos Llewellyn
What Does This Result Mean for Casnewydd Islwyn?
The 2026 Senedd Election result in Casnewydd Islwyn sends a clear message. Voters in this constituency have chosen to distribute their political representation across four parties – Reform UK, Plaid Cymru, Labour, and the Conservatives. This is proportional representation working as intended, giving different communities and viewpoints a meaningful voice in the Senedd.
Reform UK’s emergence as the largest single party by vote is the headline story. The party has tapped into a wave of voter dissatisfaction with the traditional parties and channelled it into real electoral success. At the same time, Plaid Cymru’s strong performance shows that Welsh identity politics remains a powerful force, even in the anglicised communities of the Newport area.
Labour’s reduced role – one seat from a constituency it might once have expected to sweep – reflects a broader challenge for the party in Wales and across the United Kingdom. The Conservatives securing a seat through Natasha Asghar demonstrates that the party still holds relevance despite wider national pressures.
How the D’Hondt System Works
The D’Hondt method is a form of proportional representation used to allocate seats across multiple candidates and parties. Under this system, parties receive seats in proportion to their total vote share. As each seat is allocated, the party’s vote total is divided by the number of seats it has already won plus one. This process continues until all available seats are filled. It means that larger parties tend to win more seats, but smaller parties with significant vote shares also gain representation.
