FA Cup Predictions: Powerful 2026 Upset Warning After Sutton and Knight Picks

FA Cup predictions always carry a special risk because the competition is built to embarrass certainty. That was exactly why Chris Sutton’s fifth-round picks with Peaky Blinders creator Steven Knight made such a good football debate before a weekend that mixed elite strength, lower-league shocks and old cup memories.

The BBC Sport prediction feature paired Sutton with Knight, a lifelong Birmingham City supporter whose football memories are tied deeply to the FA Cup. The headline fixture was Newcastle United against Manchester City at St James’ Park, a tie that had already become familiar after several meetings between the clubs during the season. Sutton expected a tighter game than City’s earlier EFL Cup dominance, but the weekend eventually showed something more ruthless: Manchester City had the depth, patience and attacking quality to survive pressure and move on.

City came from behind to beat Newcastle 3-1, Liverpool beat Wolves by the same scoreline, Arsenal edged Mansfield Town, Chelsea survived a Wrexham scare after extra time, Southampton shocked Fulham, Port Vale stunned Sunderland, Leeds beat Norwich and West Ham later defeated Brentford on penalties. The fifth round did exactly what the FA Cup does best. It rewarded quality, punished complacency and gave supporters enough debate to keep prediction columns alive long after the scores were known.

For readers who want the wider football background, The News Ink’s football guide explains why knockout competitions create different pressure from league football.

Why FA Cup predictions still matter

FA Cup predictions are not only about guessing scores. They are about reading momentum, squad rotation, injuries, motivation, history and the mood around a club.

A league match usually fits a longer pattern. A cup tie can bend that pattern in one afternoon. A Premier League team might rotate. A lower-league side might treat the game as the biggest moment of its season. A manager might protect players for Europe. A home crowd might turn a difficult fixture into a trap.

That is why Sutton’s weekly prediction format works. He can apply football logic, but the FA Cup always leaves room for emotion. Steven Knight added another layer because he brought the viewpoint of a supporter whose club has lived through cup heartbreak rather than cup glory.

The best FA Cup predictions are not only mathematical. They need football memory.

Sutton and Knight gave the round a human angle

Chris Sutton brought the former-player and pundit’s view. Steven Knight brought the fan’s view, especially from Birmingham City’s side of FA Cup history. That combination made the feature stronger than a normal scoreline list.

Knight’s involvement was timely. His Peaky Blinders film, The Immortal Man, was released in cinemas in March 2026 and later arrived on Netflix. But his football connection mattered more for the piece. Birmingham City have never won the FA Cup, despite reaching the final twice. Their most famous final was the 1956 defeat to Manchester City, remembered as the Trautmann Final because City goalkeeper Bert Trautmann played on after breaking a bone in his neck.

That history gave Knight’s comments weight. For some clubs, the FA Cup is a trophy cabinet item. For Birmingham supporters, it is a competition full of near misses, songs, family memories and what-ifs.

That is what separates the FA Cup from a normal weekend preview. It carries family stories from decades earlier into modern match predictions.

The fifth-round results at a glance

Tie	Result	Main story
Wolves vs Liverpool	Wolves 1-3 Liverpool	Liverpool’s second-half quality told
Mansfield Town vs Arsenal	Mansfield 1-2 Arsenal	Arsenal avoided a lower-league scare
Wrexham vs Chelsea	Wrexham 2-4 Chelsea	Chelsea needed extra time after being pushed hard
Newcastle vs Manchester City	Newcastle 1-3 Man City	City came from behind and showed squad depth
Fulham vs Southampton	Fulham 0-1 Southampton	Championship Southampton caused an upset
Port Vale vs Sunderland	Port Vale 1-0 Sunderland	League One Port Vale produced the shock of the round
Leeds United vs Norwich City	Leeds 3-0 Norwich	Leeds avoided the upset risk
West Ham vs Brentford	West Ham won on penalties	West Ham survived the last all-Premier League tie

This is why FA Cup predictions are so hard to get right. The same round produced routine elite wins, tense escapes and genuine shocks.

Newcastle vs Manchester City was the headline tie

Newcastle against Manchester City was the standout fifth-round fixture because it brought together two ambitious Premier League sides with recent history. They had already played each other several times during the season, including City’s strong EFL Cup semi-final performance.

At St James’ Park, Newcastle started well and took the lead through Harvey Barnes. For half an hour, Eddie Howe’s side looked intense and dangerous. But City responded with the control that has defined so many of Pep Guardiola’s best teams. Savinho equalised, Omar Marmoush struck twice in the second half, and City won 3-1.

The result showed why many FA Cup predictions still leaned toward City even when Newcastle had home advantage. City’s squad depth allowed Guardiola to rotate heavily and still produce enough quality. Newcastle had energy early, but City had staying power.

The News Ink’s sports training technology guide is relevant here because elite clubs increasingly rely on fitness planning, recovery, rotation and data to manage knockout schedules.

Manchester City’s win looked even bigger later

At the time, City’s fifth-round win was another step toward Wembley. By May, it looked like part of a trophy-winning run.

Manchester City eventually beat Chelsea 1-0 in the FA Cup final, with Antoine Semenyo scoring the decisive goal at Wembley. That gave City the trophy and made the fifth-round win at Newcastle look even more important in hindsight.

This is why updated FA Cup predictions articles should not stay frozen before the round. Once the competition is complete, the better angle is to compare prediction logic with what the tournament eventually revealed. City were not only strong enough to beat Newcastle. They were strong enough to win the cup.

Sutton’s instinct that Newcastle-City would be one of the round’s major tests was right. The result showed City could absorb pressure, rotate and still progress.

Liverpool handled Wolves with authority

Liverpool’s 3-1 win at Wolves opened the fifth round and set the tone for the weekend. The Premier League reported that Andy Robertson, Mohamed Salah and Curtis Jones scored the second-half goals that took Liverpool through.

That result mattered because Wolves had been enjoying a strong season and were capable of making the tie awkward. But Liverpool’s quality after the break proved decisive.

For FA Cup predictions, Liverpool were the kind of team that looked dangerous even away from home. They had enough experience, enough attacking variety and enough tournament know-how to avoid being drawn into a chaotic upset.

The News Ink’s report on Liverpool’s Champions League qualification warning gives useful context on why cup runs and European qualification both mattered during Liverpool’s wider season.

Arsenal avoided the Mansfield trap

Arsenal’s 2-1 win at Mansfield Town was the kind of FA Cup tie that can become uncomfortable quickly. Premier League leaders travelling to a lower-league ground are expected to win, but that expectation can become pressure.

Arsenal did enough. Goals from Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze helped them through, and avoiding a replay or extra-time disaster was the main job.

For FA Cup predictions, this was a classic favourite-versus-underdog test. The favourite had more talent, but the underdog had the emotional setting. Arsenal’s narrow win showed respect for the danger without losing control of the tie.

The News Ink’s article on Arsenal’s Champions League tactics gives broader tactical context on how Arsenal’s squad depth helped them chase multiple competitions.

Chelsea survived the Wrexham scare

Chelsea’s 4-2 win at Wrexham was one of the round’s most entertaining stories. Wrexham came from outside the Premier League spotlight but forced Chelsea into a difficult night. Chelsea had to come from behind twice, and extra-time goals from Alejandro Garnacho and Joao Pedro finally secured the win.

This is exactly why FA Cup predictions can be uncomfortable for big clubs. On paper, Chelsea should have had enough. In reality, Wrexham made them work for every step.

Chelsea’s progress also mattered because they eventually reached the final. Their fifth-round scare was an early warning that cup runs often depend on surviving one bad night as much as producing brilliant football.

Port Vale produced the shock of the round

Port Vale’s 1-0 win over Sunderland was the purest FA Cup moment of the fifth round. A struggling League One club beat a Premier League side and reached the quarter-finals for the first time since 1954.

Ben Waine scored the decisive goal in the 28th minute, and Vale held on against a team 57 places above them in the league pyramid. That is the kind of result every prediction column fears.

For Sutton, Knight and every fan making FA Cup predictions, Port Vale were the reminder that the competition still has teeth. No matter how much money separates the divisions, a single knockout game can shrink the gap.

The News Ink’s piece on emerging sports stories explains why unexpected sporting narratives often travel further than routine wins. Port Vale’s victory fits that idea perfectly.

Southampton also reminded everyone about cup danger

Southampton added another upset by beating Fulham 1-0 away from home. Ross Stewart’s stoppage-time penalty sent the Championship side through and made Fulham another Premier League casualty.

This result was not as dramatic as Port Vale beating Sunderland, but it mattered because it reinforced the same lesson. A higher-division club can control parts of a game and still lose if it fails to handle one decisive moment.

FA Cup predictions often focus on league position, but Southampton showed why form, tactical discipline and late-game nerve matter just as much.

Leeds did what Premier League sides must do

Leeds United avoided the embarrassment that caught Sunderland and Fulham. They beat Norwich City 3-0 at Elland Road, with Sean Longstaff, Gabriel Gudmundsson and Joel Piroe scoring.

This was the kind of result favourites need in the FA Cup. No drama, no late panic, no replay, no headlines for the wrong reasons.

For FA Cup predictions, Leeds were a reminder that not every favourite slips. Sometimes the stronger team plays like the stronger team. In a round full of possible traps, that professionalism mattered.

West Ham held their nerve against Brentford

West Ham’s penalty shootout win over Brentford completed the fifth round and sent them into the quarter-finals. It was the final all-Premier League tie of the round and another reminder that cup football often comes down to nerve.

Penalty shootouts turn predictions into guesswork. Tactical preparation matters, but pressure changes everything. West Ham survived that pressure and earned a place in the last eight.

That result completed a quarter-final lineup with enough variety to keep the competition interesting: elite clubs, Premier League survivors and lower-league stories all still alive.

Steven Knight’s Birmingham memories gave the piece depth

Steven Knight’s reflections on Birmingham City were important because they reminded readers that the FA Cup is not only about the clubs still in the draw.

Birmingham City’s 1956 final defeat to Manchester City remains one of the most famous FA Cup stories because of Bert Trautmann’s broken neck. Birmingham lost 3-1, and the match became part of English football folklore. During that cup run, “Keep Right On” became tied to Birmingham’s identity and remains one of the club’s most recognisable songs.

Knight also recalled the 1975 semi-final replay against Fulham at Maine Road, where Birmingham lost 1-0 after Fulham scored in the final minute of extra time. For supporters who lived through it, that kind of defeat does not disappear.

Those memories gave the prediction feature something most quick previews lack: emotional history.

The AI prediction angle was useful, but limited

The original feature also allowed readers to compare Sutton and Knight’s views with AI score forecasts generated through Microsoft Copilot. That is a modern twist, and it fits the way sports coverage is changing.

AI can process form, results, league positions and probabilities quickly. But the FA Cup remains difficult because human factors matter so much. How seriously will a manager rotate? How emotionally charged will a lower-league ground become? How much does a club care about the competition compared with Europe or survival? Will one red card or penalty change everything?

FA Cup predictions are exactly where AI can be interesting but imperfect. It can support debate, but it cannot replace football feel.

The News Ink’s AI trends in 2026 explains why prediction tools are becoming part of sport, media and fan engagement. But the FA Cup still has a way of laughing at models.

What the fifth round told us about the competition

The fifth round showed three clear things.

First, Manchester City remained the most dangerous cup team in England. They beat Newcastle away and eventually won the final.

Second, lower-league sides still had enough bite to change the story. Port Vale’s win over Sunderland was the standout upset, while Southampton’s win at Fulham added another blow to Premier League certainty.

Third, big clubs could not afford emotional or tactical shortcuts. Chelsea had to work hard at Wrexham. Arsenal had to manage Mansfield carefully. Liverpool needed a strong second half at Wolves.

That mixture is why the FA Cup remains valuable. It gives supporters more than elite routine. It gives them jeopardy.

Why this article should be updated beyond predictions

The original version worked as a preview, but the best SEO version now needs to reflect the results. Readers arriving later do not only want to know what Sutton and Knight predicted. They want to know what happened, which predictions aged well, and why the round mattered.

That is why the article should be framed as a prediction-and-review piece. It can still use Sutton and Knight as the hook, but it should deliver a fuller story: the fixtures, the results, the shocks, the City-Newcastle headline, Birmingham’s FA Cup memories and the eventual Manchester City trophy win.

That gives the article longer life in search. It is no longer just a weekend preview. It becomes a record of one of the competition’s most interesting 2026 rounds.

The final judgment

FA Cup predictions are fun because they invite confidence before chaos. Chris Sutton and Steven Knight’s fifth-round discussion captured that perfectly.

Sutton brought football judgement. Knight brought Birmingham history and supporter emotion. The fixtures then delivered exactly the kind of weekend that makes the FA Cup difficult to predict: Manchester City came from behind at Newcastle, Liverpool handled Wolves, Chelsea survived Wrexham, Arsenal edged Mansfield, Port Vale stunned Sunderland, Southampton shocked Fulham, Leeds avoided danger and West Ham held their nerve on penalties.

City’s later FA Cup final win over Chelsea gave the fifth-round story a stronger ending. The team that passed the St James’ Park test became the team lifting the trophy at Wembley.

That is the beauty of the competition. Predictions start the conversation, but the cup writes the better script.

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